英国本周或十年来首次加息 九名票委态度是关键顺水鱼财经

北京时间11月2日20：00，' 英国央行将公布利率决议和货币政策会议纪要。届时，' 英国央行可能实行10年来的首次' 加息。

那么，谁将对此做出决定呢？英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)的九名成员将决定，通胀是否存在失控的风险，以及英国是否需要更高的借贷成本。

1. 英国央行行长卡尼(Mark Carney)

2013年7月，身为' 加拿大央行行长和高盛银行家的卡尼加入了英国央行。作为首位领导英国央行的外国人，他过去在利率问题方面的态度含混，在英国脱欧问题上与议员发生冲突，因此招致了不少批评。卡尼在2016年放松政策以帮助提振经济，现在则转而警告称，英国可能很快需要更高的利率来抑制通胀压力。

鹰派或鸽派?鹰派

最后投票利率:0.25%

他最近称：“由于已经用完了更多闲置产能，有证据表明出现了国内压力，委员会多数人的判断是，未来几个月上调利率可能是适宜的举措。”(10月17日)

2.英国央行副行长，货币政策部门成员布罗德本特(Ben Broadbent)

2011年，曾经在高盛工作的布罗德本特加入了英国央行，担任外部MPC成员，并在2014年被任命为英国央行副行长。

他最近没有给出政策指导。不过，他在今年7月表示，英国脱欧已经让公司变得谨慎，但他当时并没有准备好投票支持加息。

鹰派或鸽派?中立

3.首席经济学家霍尔丹(Andrew Haldane)

霍尔丹在英国央行的任职时间超过25年，以丰富多彩的演讲闻名于世。他从各种不同的角度分析英国央行的政策。此外，他创立的公益经济学是一个将经济学家与慈善机构联系起来的慈善机构。

他最近称:“加息将使利率回归正常轨道，即使新常态与旧常态有所不同。这将是经济复苏的迹象，因此这应该是一个好消息，而不是恐惧或是恐惧的来源。”(9月27日)

你知道吗?2014年，霍尔丹被《时代》杂志评为最具影响力人物之一。

4.英国央行副行长，市场和' 银行业委员拉姆斯登(Dave Ramsde)

拉姆斯登于2017年9月加入英国央行，加入英国央行财政部担任首席经济顾问。在2016年脱欧公投之前，他负责财政部对脱欧一事做出了有争议的预测。在本月的任命听证会上，他阐明了自己的立场，表明自己倾向于对加息持有鸽派立场。

鹰派还是鸽派?鸽派

他最近表示:“我仍然认为，英国经济存在一定的不景气。每次召开MPC会议的时候，我都会努力提出这点。”(10月17日)

你知道吗?作为一名财政部代表，他已经参加了10年的MPC会议，可能比其他任何人都看到了更多的英国央行决策。但是，这只是他第二次具有投票权。

5.副行长，金融稳定部门成员坎利夫(Jon Cunliffe)

坎利夫在英国财政部工作了近20年。从2012年到2013年，他一直是英国常驻' 欧盟代表。他已经暗示，他对英国央行10年来首次加息的时机持谨慎态度。

鹰派还是鸽派?中立

他最近表示：如果经济继续像预期那样发展，我很清楚英国央行需要上调利率，需要逐步、缓慢地上调利率。当这个过程真正开始时，对我来说这是一个更开放的问题。”(10月19日)

6.英国央行外部成员特雷诺(Silvana Tenreyro)

特雷诺是英国央行MPC九位成员中唯一的女性。哈佛毕业的她是伦敦经济学院的经济学教授。她持有英国、' 意大利和阿根廷的公民身份。

鹰派或鸽派?中立

她最近表示:“我们正接近一个转折点。如果输出的' 数据和我刚刚描述的情况一致，即产出缺口接近于零，那么我将在未来几个月里投票支持英国央行上调利率。”(10月17日)

此前，她曾任职于毛里求斯央行货币政策委员会。

7.英国央行外部成员麦卡弗蒂(Ian McCafferty)

麦卡弗蒂于2012年9月加入英国央行MPC，并于2015年得到重新任命，获得了第二个为期三年的任期。他实际上是该委员会的商业代表，此前曾在英国工业联合会和英国石油公司工作过。

最后投票利率:0.5%

最近，他表示:“直到最近，金融市场似乎都认为，不管经济表现如何，在英国脱离欧盟之后，与脱欧相关的不确定性有效地束缚了我们的手脚。我们觉得，这误读了我们的反应机制。”(10月5日)

人们对他持有异议的态度已经不会感到陌生。自上任以来，他已经14次没有投票支持英国央行加息。

8.英国央行外部成员桑德斯(Michael Saunders)

桑德斯和麦卡弗蒂是英国央行MPC的两位鹰派人士。桑德斯在最近三次会议上投票赞成加息。他曾在1990年至2016年担任花旗的英国经济学家，并于上世纪80年代在财政研究所担任研究分析师。

最后投票利率:0.5%

他最近表示:“我们不需要如此拼命地踩刹车，以至于经济大幅下滑。但是，在我看来，我们的脚不再需要那么坚定地踩在油门上了。利率的小幅上升将有助于确保长期通胀目标的实现。”(8月31日)

他出钱加入了诺丁汉商会，这样他就能在卡尼的第一次公开活动中获得一席之地。

9.英国央行外部成员弗利葛(Gertjan Vlieghe)

在被任命为MPC的成员前，弗利葛曾在布勒旺霍华德资产管理公司和德意志银行工作。1998年到2005年，他在英国央行工作，包括担任前英国央行行长默文·金(Mervyn King)的经济助理。该时期正好也标志着英国央行的转折点。

他此前是鸽派人物，但最近的立场有所改变了。

他最近指出:“数据的演变越来越表明，我们正在接近银行利率可能需要上调的时刻。”(9月15日)

他的任命陷入了争议，因为他最初试图保留自己的权利，在布雷文后能享有自己的投票权力。在议员们表示担忧之后，他同意出售自己的权益。

BOE"s Nine Voters May Raise U.K. Interest Rates This Week

By Jill Ward

(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England may be heading for its first interest-rate increase in a decade, which will lift the cost of a variable or tracker rate 200,000-pound mortgage ($262,000) by almost 300 pounds a year. So who makes that call? Here are the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee about to decide if there"s a risk inflation is getting out of control and the U.K. needs higher borrowing costs.

Mark Carney | Governor

The former Bank of Canada governor and Goldman Sachs banker joined the BOE in July 2013. The first foreigner to lead the institution, he"s been criticized for giving mixed messages on interest rates in the past and clashed with lawmakers over Brexit. Having loosened policy in 2016 to help the economy, he"s now switched to warning that the U.K. may soon need higher rates to tame inflation pressures.

Hawk or Dove? Hawkish

Last interest-rate vote: 0.25%

What he"s said recently: ”Having used up more spare capacity, having seen some evidence of building domestic pressures, the judgment of the majority of the committee is some raise in interest rates over the coming months may be appropriate.” (Oct. 17)

Did you know? He ran the 2015 London marathon in 3 1/2 hours.

Ben Broadbent | Deputy Governor, Monetary Policy

Another Goldman alum, Broadbent joined the BOE as an external MPC member in 2011 and was appointed deputy governor in 2014. He hasn"t given a steer on policy recently, though in July he said Brexit had made firms cautious and he wasn"t at the time ready to vote for a hike.

Hawk or Dove? Neutral

Did you know? He studied music in Paris and plays violin and piano.

Andrew Haldane | Chief Economist

Haldane has spent more than a quarter century at the BOE and is known for colorful speeches that have analyzed policy through the prism of everything from biology to frisbee-catching. Co-founded Pro Bono Economics, a charity that links economists with charities.

What he"s said recently: An increase “would be interest rates getting back to normal, even if the new normal is different than the old normal. This"d be a sign of the economy healing. So rather than be a source of fear or trepidation, this ought to be a good news story.” (Sept. 27)

Did you know? He was named one of Time Magazine"s most influential people in 2014.

Dave Ramsden | Deputy Governor, Markets and Banking

Ramsden joined the BOE in September 2017, joining from the U.K. Treasury, where he was chief economic adviser. He was in charge of the Treasury"s controversial forecasts on Brexit before the 2016 EU referendum.The newest member of the MPC, he set out his position at his appointment hearing this month, indicating he leans to the dovish side of the spectrum.

Hawk or Dove? Dovish

What he"s said recently: ”I still think there is some slack in the economy. I"m going to approach each MPC meeting as it comes.” (Oct. 17)

Did you know? He"s been attending MPC meetings for a decade as a Treasury representative and has probably seen more decisions than anyone else on the panel. But this is only the second time he gets to vote.

Jon Cunliffe | Deputy Governor, Financial Stability

Cunliffe worked in the U.K. Treasury for almost two decades and was the British Permanent Representative to the EU from 2012 to 2013. He has indicated he"s cautious on the timing of the first rate increase.

Hawk or Dove? Neutral

Last rate vote: 0.25%

What he"s said recently: If the economy continues as expected, “I"m very clear interest rates will need to rise, slowly and gradually, over the period. When that process should actually start, that for me is the more open question.” (Oct. 19)

Did you know? He studied English and lectured on English literature in Canada.

Silvana Tenreyro | External Member

The only woman on the nine-member MPC, Harvard-educated Tenreyro is a professor in economics at the London School of Economics. She holds British, Italian and Argentinian citizenships.

Hawk or Dove? Neutral

What she"s said recently: ”We are approaching a tipping point. If the data outturns are consistent with the picture I just described, of an output gap going toward zero, then I"d be minded to vote for a bank rate increase in the coming months.” (Oct. 17)

Did you know? She previously served on the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Mauritius.

Ian McCafferty | External Member

Ian McCafferty joined the MPC in September 2012 and was reappointed for a second three-year term in 2015. He"s effectively the business representative on the committee, having previously worked at the Confederation of British Industry and BP.

Last interest-rate vote: 0.5%

What he"s said recently: ”Until recently, financial markets had appeared to believe that, almost regardless of how the economy behaved, Brexit-related uncertainties effectively tied our hands until after the U.K. had left the European Union. This, we felt, was a misreading of our reaction function.” (Oct. 5)

Did you know? No stranger to dissent, he"s unsuccessfully voted for a rate hike 14 times since his appointment.

Michael Saunders | External Member

One of the two hawks on the MPC (along with McCafferty), he"s voted for an interest-rate increase at the last three meetings. He was a U.K. economist at Citigroup from 1990 to 2016, and a research analyst at the Institute for Fiscal Studies in the 1980s.

Last interest-rate vote: 0.5%

What he"s said recently: ”We do not need to be putting the brakes on so much that the economy weakens sharply. But, our foot no longer needs to be quite so firmly on the accelerator in my view. A modest rise in rates would help ensure a sustainable return of inflation to target over time.” (Aug. 31)

Did you know? He paid to join the Nottingham Chamber of Commerce so he could get a spot at Carney"s first public event. Having travelled to the event and got in a question, Carney responded: “Have you moved up here, Michael?”

Gertjan Vlieghe | External member

Vlieghe previously worked at Brevan Howard and Deutsche Bank before being appointed to the MPC. It marked a return to the central bank, as he worked there from 1998 to 2005, including a stint as Mervyn King"s economic assistant. Initially the uber-dove on the committee, his position has shifted more recently.

What he"s said recently: ”The evolution of the data is increasingly suggesting that we are approaching the moment when bank rate may need to rise.” (Sept. 15)

Did you know? His appointment was mired in controversy after he initially attempted to retain his rights to a share of future payouts from Brevan. He eventually agreed to sell his interest after lawmakers expressed concern.